MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies, April 29th

Gavin Williams cost us in more ways than one last night. Not only did his poor performance down our Twins-Guardians under to snap the latest winning streak, but he also accumulated only two Ks in the process. And remember, Williams’ over 129.5 strikeouts bet for the season is our biggest futures wager. Let’s just focus on the new day and hopefully spring the beginnings of another win streak.

Such efforts will be cast from Citizens Bank Park in the City of Brotherly Love, where the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies begin a three-game series. The opener is definitely one that sticks out, being that it’s an Opening Day rematch.

Yes, Zack Wheeler and MacKenzie Gore are getting set to face off once more. This will be the fourth lifetime meeting between the two aces — including their aforementioned most recent date on March 27 — and strangely, the over hit in the first three.

Maybe that’s why the oddsmakers opted for the surprising decision of tabbing this next encounter with a total of 8.5. Wheeler home games rarely draw an over/under this high, and for comparison’s sake, he just had a start opposite Kyle Freeland of the Colorado Rockies in this same ballpark with a 7.5 total. The Nationals’ lineup might be a bit superior to that of Colorado, but unquestionably not enough to create a full-run difference between that contest and the one we’ve set our sights on.

Plus, although the first three matchups featuring these two pitchers went over, it had very little to do with what each of them showcased. For instance, this year’s Opening Day bout finished 7-3 despite both Gore and Wheeler combining to allow only one total run in 12 combined innings. That game only went over because of bad bullpen work — not to mention needing extra innings to do so.

So, we’ll throw that outcome history out the window and simply gauge what’s to come tonight — most likely a pair of solid outings from two of the best arms the National League has to offer.

To no one’s surprise, Wheeler is out to another pleasant start this year. While his 3.62 ERA may not be his usual strong mark, keep in mind that he’s also registered a standout 2.28 xERA (expected earned run average), meaning he’s pitched considerably better than what his official ERA might suggest. In addition, Wheeler’s clocking in with the highest strikeout rate of his 13 years in the big leagues (12.1 K/9) while also maintaining a 1.02 WHIP and .217 batting average against.

The 34-year-old is doing just fine, folks, and can be considered as dominant as he’s ever been.

On top of that, Wheeler gets a home assignment in this one and that’s always significant given his numbers when pitching in the City of Brotherly Love. In 82 starts at Citizens Bank Park (including playoffs and his stint with the New York Mets), the former first-round draft pick is an absurd 39-14 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.

Through six starts this season, Wheeler’s counterpart this evening, Gore, has spun similar excellence. He’s pitched into the sixth inning or deeper each time out and has a nifty 3.34 ERA and 1.14 WHIP to show for it. Both marks would go down as career bests for the fourth-year southpaw if they end around there. Furthermore, he leads the league with 53 strikeouts (interestingly, Wheeler is second with 50).

Gore is clearly on a trajectory toward his first All-Star Game appearance, and something else that can help his cause on this night is the success he’s had against this opponent. Of course, the Phillies boast one of the more potent batting orders, but Gore has done more than hold his own in these matchups. Philly’s big six of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto are a combined 33-for-123 (.268) with 39 strikeouts versus Gore.

In other words, the left-hander is punching out those six upper-echelon hitters just about once every three ABs across a fairly large sample size. That’s pretty notable.

The over/under being as high as it is means that simply one strong showing from either starter can do the trick, so long as the other doesn’t get knocked around. I’ll gladly be betting on that.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-115, DraftKings)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 21-17-1, +0.54 unit
Over/Unders: 18-12-1
Props: 3-4
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Result: Twins-Guardians under 8.5 (loss)

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

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